2026 Forecast
$4.23M
+14.3% YoY
Peak Month
Aug $432K
Competition season
Savings Identified
$31K+
Annualized opportunity
Avg Surcharge Rate
24.1%
DHL China highest 31.5%
2026 monthly forecast ($K)
All carriers. Yellow = actual anchors.
FedEx
DHL US
DHL China
Carrier actuals summary
Based on uploaded invoices + baseline anchors
| Carrier | Period | Net cost | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FedEx | Nov 2025 | $173,448 | Anchored |
| DHL US | Jan 2026 | $229,750 | Customs only |
| DHL China | Feb–Mar 2026 | $34,462 | High fuel |
Cost driver breakdown — all carriers
Actuals from uploaded invoices
| Driver | Amount | % of net | Carrier | Controllable? | Risk |
|---|
FedEx charge breakdown ($K)
Avoidable fees — annual estimate
| Fee | Monthly | Annual est. | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Address correction | $384 | $4,608 | Address validation |
| AHS / oversize | $208 | $2,496 | Packaging audit |
| Demand surcharge (peak) | $7,060 | $14,120 | Pre-position stock |
| DHL CN remote area | $829 | $9,950 | Review routes |
FedEx 2026
$2.18M
GRI 5.9% + Vol 8%
DHL US 2026
$1.78M
GRI 5.5% + Vol 8%
DHL China 2026
$268K
CNY 7.23/USD
Peak Month
Aug $432K
Competition season
Monthly forecast — 2026
Yellow = anchored actuals
Fuel surcharge sensitivity (FedEx annual)
| Scenario | Rate | Annual cost | vs base |
|---|
Expedite shipment cost impact
| Expedite % | Premium | Annual cost | Incremental |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | 30% | $56K | +$13K |
| 5% (base) | 35% | $147K | +$38K |
| 8% | 40% | $245K | +$70K |
| 12% | 45% | $382K | +$118K |
Assumption watch list
| Assumption | Current value | Update trigger | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| FedEx fuel surcharge | 19.3% | Weekly index ±2pts | Review due |
| CNY / USD rate | 7.23 | Rate moves ±3% | Current |
| DHL China fuel rate | 31.5% | Monthly invoice | Current |
| US import duties | Actuals | Any tariff change | Monitor tariffs |
Cost Analyzer
⌘ + Enter to run
Loaded invoices
FedEx_Nov2025.xlsxbaseline
fedex · 2127 rows · $173.4K
DHL_US_Jan2026.xlsxbaseline
dhl_us · 897 rows · $229.8K
DHL_China_Mar2026.csvbaseline
dhl_china · 331 rows · $34.5K
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Forecast assumptions
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